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☆ JPMorgan is cautious on crypto as retail investors dump following ETF hype
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Retail dollars flowed out of bitcoin ETFs in April, and investors should adopt a cautious stance on the cryptocurrency for now, according to JPMorgan. "The past two weeks saw significant selling/profit taking with perhaps retail investors playing a bigger role than institutional investors," JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a note Thursday. "Indeed, not only have spot bitcoin ETFs seen outflows in April but our proxies of the retail impulse into equities have also downshifted over the past month." Panigirtzoglou noted that in addition to crypto, retail investors also sold equities in April and that the impulse into stocks has also shifted down. "This is shown by … the net flow into equity funds including ETFs and mutual funds, typically used by retail investors … [which] turned negative in April after strong buying in February and March," he said.

Persons: JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Panigirtzoglou, cryptocurrencies Organizations: JPMorgan, Metrics, Investors, Federal

☆ The Bitcoin network completes the fourth-ever ‘halving’ of rewards to miners
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

watch nowThe Bitcoin network on Friday evening completed its fourth "halving," reducing the rewards earned by miners to 3.125 bitcoins from 6.25. After the 2012, 2016 and 2020 halvings, the bitcoin price ran up about 93x, 30x and 8x, respectively, from its halving day price to its cycle top. Hash rates are a measure of the computational power used to process transactions on the bitcoin network. "The market so far has seen bitcoin mining stocks as mere BTC proxies, in absence of bitcoin ETFs," said Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani. "[The] Bitcoin halving is already partially priced in by the market and we do not expect prices to increase significantly following the halving event," the firm's Marion Laboure said in a note Thursday, adding that it "has been widely anticipated in advance due to the nature of the Bitcoin algorithm."

Persons: Reginald Smith, Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani, MARA, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Marion Laboure Organizations: Metrics, JPMorgan, BTC, IRIS, Deutsche Bank Locations: Friday's

☆ Bitcoin resumes its rally, ripping through $54,000 for the first time since December 2021
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-26 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The price of bitcoin shot above the $54,000 level on Monday after waking up from a week of tepid trading. At its session high, bitcoin hit $54,965.26 and reached its highest level since December 2021. "Today is settlement day for bitcoin futures, which is contributing to the price jump we're seeing," said Ryan Rasmussen, analyst at Bitwise Asset Management. "We're approaching the window where we typically see traders positioning themselves ahead of the bitcoin halving, which will happen in the second half of April. Bitcoin traded flat in the week leading up to Monday, when the breakout began, and put it on track for a 27% monthly gain.

Persons: cryptocurrency, bitcoin, Ryan Rasmussen, Ether, Solana, Polygon's, Microstrategy, Bitcoin, Owen Lau, Oppenheimer, JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou Organizations: Metrics, Bitwise Asset Management, JPMorgan, CNBC PRO Locations: —

☆ Stablecoin expansion is bringing liquidity to crypto, but JPMorgan warns of challenges ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-04 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The stablecoin market cap is growing again, which is a good sign for crypto market liquidity, but it hasn't fully recovered and could face regulatory challenges this year, according to JPMorgan. Stablecoins expanded by $60 billion between their May 2022 peak and their October 2023 low of $122 billion. But as investors anticipated the Securities and Exchange Commission's approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., the market expanded by $9 billion between October 2023 and January 2024. This is generally a "positive sign" for crypto, according to JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. Despite bitcoin's stellar 157% gain in 2023 and nearly ideal setup for 2024, the crypto market has been struggling with low liquidity since last year.

Persons: Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Panigirtzoglou, Panigirtzaoglou, confidentially, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Securities, Exchange, U.S ., Bank, U.S Locations: U.S, Silicon, SVB, Europe, Crypto, USDC

☆ Bitcoin tries for a winning week as investor worries about GBTC sell pressure subside
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Bitcoin pushed higher to end the week as investors took some comfort in the idea that outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF (GBTC) could be starting to taper off. It's on pace, however, to post a nearly 10% decline for the week. If premarket gains hold, Coinbase is is on pace to end the week up 1% for the week. It would mark for its first positive week in five. Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms is set to rise 9% this week and also post its first positive week in five.

Persons: Bitcoin, It's, John Todaro, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, — CNBC's Gina Francolla Organizations: Metrics, JPMorgan, U.S, CNBC PRO Locations: GBTC

☆ This is what was behind the bitcoin sell-off and why JPMorgan thinks it could be ending
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The driving force behind the recent sell-off in bitcoin may have run its course, according to JPMorgan. BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin has retreated since the approval of bitcoin ETFs. JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a note to clients Thursday that the main source of the selling has come from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) . Some outflows from GBTC were expected, given the prior discount and its high cost relative to other bitcoin ETFs. And some of the other bitcoin ETFs are seeing big inflows, with funds from iShares ( IBIT ) and Fidelity Wise Origin ( FBTC ) both surpassing $1 billion in inflows.

Persons: Bitcoin, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Panigirtzoglou Organizations: JPMorgan, Fidelity Locations: bitcoin, GBTC, iShares

☆ Altcoins are finally joining the current bitcoin rally as crypto investors turn risk-on
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-11 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Altcoins were in rally mode this week after lagging bitcoin in its recent climb to new 2023 highs. Bitcoin and ether have been separate from this trend recently, with more investors appearing to treat them as a safety trade compared to smaller, riskier altcoins. "Historically we've seen bitcoin rally, then Ethereum, then alts, and that pattern seems to be repeating as this bull market heats up," he said. "We see as a more likely scenario existing capital shifting from existing bitcoin products such as the Grayscale bitcoin trust, bitcoin futures ETFs and publicly listed bitcoin mining companies, into the newly-approved spot bitcoin ETFs," he said. He also said that bitcoin ETFs already exist in Canada and Europe but haven't garnered much interest from investors since their inception.

Persons: Altcoins, bitcoin, Polygon's, Bitcoin, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, altcoins, – it's, It's, Ryan Rasmussen, Mike Novogratz, JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, haven't, Panigirtzoglou, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Solana, ADA, ETH, Wolfe Research, Treasury, Bitwise Asset Management, Galaxy Digital, JPMorgan Locations: Canada, Europe

☆ Downside risk in crypto market is ‘limited’ after August correction, says JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Bitcoin remains stuck in an environment of low liquidity, thin trading volumes and few, if any, catalysts to take it higher. After the recent correction, however, most downside risk is behind us, according to JPMorgan. As a result, we see limited downside for crypto markets over the near term." Panigirtzoglou highlighted the district court decision in the SEC vs. Ripple case, PayPal's launch of a stablecoin, Coinbase's new "Base" chain launch and anticipation that the SEC will approve a spot bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin is down 10% in August but remains higher by more than 57% in 2023 as a whole.

Persons: Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Bitcoin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, SEC Locations: Washington, China

For some, the answer to exuberant markets lies in the ample cash still sloshing around the financial system. Total global liquidity, a measure of cash and credit in the world economy, has risen to almost $170 trillion in June, Crossborder calculates, from $158 trillion in October. Central banks have added a net $1.7 trillion into money markets since November, it also estimates, a move that correlates with a risk-taking trend. But an alternative scenario is that U.S. money market funds, stuffed with cash after depositors fled regional banks in March, buy enough newly issued Treasuries to keep rates stable. "Liquidity is not a force that reverberates immediately into financial markets," said JPMorgan global market strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.

Persons: Michael Howell, Crossborder, Richard Clarida, Georgina Taylor, Ken Taubes, reverberates, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Morgan Stanley, Luca Paolini, Paolini, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Dhara Ranasinghe, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: U.S . Treasury, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Crossborder Capital, U.S, Reuters, BNP, JPMorgan, Apple, Thomson Locations: Japan, U.S

☆ Crypto’s biggest headwinds this year are hurting stablecoins. Here’s what investors need to know
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Stablecoins are like cash in crypto markets: They are supposed to be pegged to the value of a stable asset, such as the U.S. dollar. Stablecoins play an important role bridging traditional and digital currencies and giving market participants access to crypto trading and protocols. For many, that makes them a proxy for the amount of fiat money entering and leaving crypto, Panigirtzoglou said. Republican negotiators walking out of the high-stakes debt ceiling talks Friday also has implications for stablecoins. Tether and Circle's USDC hold about 65% and 57%, respectively, of their stablecoin reserves in T-bills, according to the companies' attestation reports.

☆ 'Ordinals' could signal the beginning of a new generation for Bitcoin. Here's what investors need to know
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

"In a way, Bitcoin Ordinals add more diversity and utility to the Bitcoin network, which could elevate the Bitcoin network utility to that of other blockchains, such as Ethereum." There's one population in crypto, however, who have long believed the Bitcoin network could and must do more than that. Binance cited Bitcoin network congestion on Sunday as the reason for pausing withdrawals, and bitcoin dropped 7% between then and Monday. "Congestion, or lots of demand for the block space, is not just good, it's a critical thing for the future of Bitcoin," Miller added. A sneak peek Ordinals and spikes in transaction fees are just a glimpse of what may be on the horizon.

☆ Explainer: Why European money market funds inflows are lagging behind the U.S. torrent?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Harry Robertson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

[1/2] U.S. dollar and Euro bank notes are photographed in Frankfurt, Germany, in this illustration picture taken May 7, 2017. In Europe, investors put 17.7 billion euros ($19.35 billion) into euro-denominated money market funds in March, Refinitiv Lipper data shows, when the Credit Suisse crisis rocked markets. Other analysts said it was due to the fact that euro money market funds are underdeveloped relative to U.S. funds and are focused more on private sector, particularly bank, debt. WHAT IS A MONEY MARKET FUND? The European money market fund sector is far smaller than in the United States.

☆ JPMorgan says more banks could run out of reserves like SVB if pace of this deposit flight continues
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"The current pace of deposit loss to MMFs raises questions over sustainability," JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a Friday client note. "If it continues for a prolonged period, more US banks could eventually run out of reserves and face liquidity issues similar to SVB, Signature Bank and Silvergate." The ongoing deposit flight has created a problem for banks that have to maintain a base of assets against their deposit totals. In the current case, the situation has seen banks dip into reserves to cover their capital requirements, a situation that JPMorgan called potentially dangerous. Bank reserves have declined sharply since the Fed began curtailing then ultimately reversing its quantitative easing.

While money funds are not strictly gauranteed or insured, the 85% invested heavily in government securities put up some stark competition for bank deposits that have lagged central bank policy rate rises over the past 18 months - causing much political ire in countries such as Britain. But, in contrast to money funds, the average rate across all of them, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, is still just 0.37%. That's now changing due to safety and insurance fears at smaller banks stateside - as well as the compelling alternative at money funds that appear safer against that backdrop. Of this trillion, half went to government money market funds and the other half to larger banks, they reckoned. Noting that some $7 trillion of U.S. bank deposits remained uninsured, the JPM team concluded: "A FDIC guarantee of all U.S. bank deposits would certainly help, but it might not be enough to completely stop this deposit shift."

☆ Why the struggles of mid-sized US banks could be bad news for the Main Street economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Households and businesses may find it harder to get loans from regional banks as people pull deposits from those lenders. "The greatest vulnerabilities with respect to credit creation going forward lie with non-mortgage bank lending to households and mortgage bank lending for non-financial non-corporate businesses," JPMorgan said. Regional banks are "very important" to the financial system, CFRA's Yokum said. Regional banks can potentially give better service, more customized products, potentially higher deposit rates," he said. Some hefty figures illustrate the "disproportionately large" role small banks hold in lending in the US.

[1/2] A JPMorgan logo is seen in New York City, U.S., January 10, 2017. While lenders regularly compete for customers, the loss of confidence that shook the banking system in the last two weeks sparked concerns about contagion that could lead to a broader panic. President Joe Biden, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Citigroup Inc. C.N Chief Executive Jane Fraser have all made statements in recent days to reassure the public that the U.S. banking system is safe. "We all have a vested interest in keeping America's financial system strong and thriving," a JPMorgan spokesperson said. "It's the envy of the world with thousands of institutions of all sizes serving every corner of the country."

☆ 'Most vulnerable' U.S. banks lost $1 trillion in deposits in a year -JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Nupur Anand | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File PhotoNew YORK, March 23 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co analysts estimate that the "most vulnerable" U.S. banks are likely to have lost a total of about $1 trillion in deposits since last year, with half of the outflows occurring in March following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. The team of JPMorgan (JPM.N) analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou did not name any of the banks they categorized as "most vulnerable" or say how many they included in this group. Of the $17 trillion of total U.S. bank deposits, nearly $7 trillion are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC), the JPMorgan analysts wrote. Rising U.S. interest rates, and banks' sluggish moves to raise the rates they pay depositors, have also contributed to the outflows in the last year, the JPMorgan analysts said. Out of the $1 trillion in deposits that were pulled out of the most vulnerable U.S. lenders, half went to government money market funds, while the other half landed at larger U.S. banks, the analysts wrote.

LONDON, March 2 (Reuters) - Major central banks resumed their quest to ramp up interest rates in February after a tepid start to the year with price pressures proving more sticky than markets and many policy makers had hoped for. February saw six interest rate hikes across six meetings by central banks overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies. January had seen just one interest rate hike of 25 bps by Canada across three meetings by G10 central banks. "This (inflation) shock came for everyone together, but it might disappear at different rates," said Gabriel Sterne at Oxford Economics. "The disinflation trend is looking surprising good in Asia now for example where services inflation has already turned a corner."

The events of the year took many investors by surprise and made the task of predicting bitcoin's price that much harder. The crypto market was awash with pundits making feverish calls about where bitcoin was heading next. When asked about his $250,000 target earlier this month, the Draper Associates founder told CNBC $250,000 "is still my number" — but he's extending his prediction by six months. The entrepreneur says he's also done making bitcoin price predictions. Buehler said lack of risk management in the crypto industry, missing regulation and fraud have also been major factors affecting prices.

☆ J.P.Morgan sees global bond yields dipping in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Nov 25 (Reuters) - Global bond yields will likely fall slightly in 2023 as the balance between demand and supply will improve by $1 trillion, strategists at J.P. Morgan said in a note. There will be a $700 billion contraction in global bond demand next year compared to 2022, while bond supply will likely drop by $1.6 trillion, J.P. Morgan strategists, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, estimated in the note issued on Thursday. "Based on the historical relationship between annual changes in excess supply and the Global Aggregate bond index yield, a $1 trillion improvement in the demand/supply balance would imply downward pressure on Global Aggregate yields of around 40 basis points," the Wall Street bank said. J.P. Morgan said that while major central banks trimming their balance sheets in 2022 was the single largest contributor to deterioration in bond demand, sell-offs by commercial banks and retail investors were also much higher than estimates. This year was one of the worst for bonds in history.

Even though more than half the money ever invested in bitcoin would now be underwater if it had stayed, crypto monitors insist it's somehow still attracting punters. Cryptocurrency and bitcoin investors seem to be showing few signs of dumping their crypto-related assets, stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), despite the latest wave of turmoil and scandal to crash over the sector. Analysts at JP Morgan estimate that around $25 billion has flowed out of the crypto since May. He estimates that the stablecoin market cap peaked at around $170 billion earlier this year and has declined by around $25 billion since May. That is, $25 billion of redemptions flowing out of crypto, most likely to fiat currency, perhaps cash or cash-like products.

☆ Premarket stocks: Crypto is in crisis. It's not just because of FTX
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN Business —The stunning downfall of FTX, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, sent shockwaves through the crypto universe last week. Sam Bankman-Fried, the 30-year-old crypto titan and chief executive of FTX, watched billions of his fortune evaporate in a bankruptcy filing that shook the trillion-dollar industry to its core. Those efforts mean capital is drying up – and that’s not just bad for crypto but other asset classes including stocks, too. Cryptocurrencies enjoyed huge injections of money during the pandemic era thanks to the Federal Reserve’s easy money policy. “In all, the slowdown in global money growth looks set to continue over the coming year, with some contraction looking likely in the US,” wrote JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou in a note.

☆ The FTX fiasco could spark an industry meltdown - and slash bitcoin's price by 25% to $13,000, JPMorgan strategists say
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

FTX's financial woes are likely to transform the crypto industry, JPMorgan strategists said. Bitcoin could plunge 25% to $13,000, and crypto firms might act more carefully in future, they said. "The number of entities with stronger balance sheets able to rescue those with low capital and high leverage is shrinking within the crypto ecosystem," the JPMorgan strategists said. "With the crypto market cap standing at just above $1tr before the FTX/Alameda Research collapse, our guess is that the crypto market will find a floor above $500bn in the current deleveraging phase," they added. Commentators have warned about dangerous amounts of debt and excessive risk-taking in the crypto industry before.

☆ JPMorgan says FTX collapse fallout could cut the value of cryptocurrencies in half before it's over
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The tumult stems from the potential collapse of crypto-exchange FTX, which was in the process of being acquired by Binance, amid a liquidity crisis. On Wednesday, Binance backed out of the deal, leaving FTX near collapse. At the end of this latest deleveraging cycle, the asset class could see its value cut in half. "A production cost of $13k implies 25% downside from here which would bring the crypto market cap to a low of $650 billion," said Panigirtzoglou. This will be with the goal to safeguard client assets, limit asset concentration and create more diligent risk management, including counterparty risk among crypto market participants.

☆ Ether is down almost 20% since the merge. Here’s what’s going on
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Twice during the week, as bitcoin dipped below the $19,000 level, ether hovered at $1,300 (about 70% below its all-time high). Many expected the merge to be a buy-the-rumor/sell-the-news event, and there are growing concerns in the crypto community about the post-merge Ethereum. Ahead of the merge, many investors were buying spot ether and shorting ether perpetual futures , in order to get tokens of the "forked" version of Ethereum for free, without the ether price exposure. Growing concerns Ahead of the merge, there were two main concerns the crypto community had begun exploring. "It looks like Ethereum Classic has been the main beneficiary post merge," JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a note this week.

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